Pretty interesting chart here.
The 10year yields have now retraced .618 of the move from the 2018 highs to the Covid 2020 lows.
FOMC is in 2 days - if Powell offers no surprises, I wouldn't be shocked to call this the top in the 10 year for now. IF we start to get a reversal in rates - get long bonds such as $TLT or $ZROZ - and tech might even rally.
US 10-year yields are slamming back down into the 1.72 breakout zone going back to March of 2021. We're at a logical spot to bounce, but beware of a continued move lower just as the prevailing opinion is that interest rates must rise.
Losing 1.70 and holding below on a closing basis would be an important change of character.
Soon...may be in 6 months
Which is relevant to stocks ,financial market and investment ...
By static ,after reaching the top trend-line there's always tragedy follows
So be cautious about this
More analysis below
The 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon.
All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions.
I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown.
The market conditions...
The difference between the returns of 10-year and 2-year bonds and the lower the value of these two charts, the slope of the reduction curve (Flat) and vice versa, the more we grow in these two charts, the slope of the curve has increased (Steep).
I compared the behavior of this chart to Bitcoin.
American financial and economic data.
Historically, in the absence of QE (Quantitative Easing), the US10Y (US 10 Year Treasury Bon) exceeds inflation. This means that bond yields must rise to exceed inflation for non-Federal Reserve buyers to enter the market place. Non-Government buyers will not buy a bond below inflation as their real returns would be negative.
The US10Y is following exactly the pattern of October - November 2021. After a strong Channel Up, it broke to the downside, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally under the Support of the Channel Up first Low.
Based on the November pattern, the price should decline for the rest of the month, making a Lower Low below the Support and quite likely near...
When investing in US Treasury Bonds you are guaranteed money in the form of yield. However, if an investor is looking to take on the opportunity cost of carrying a yieldless asset; there is no guaranteed payment. Profit is only realized by an increase in value during the carrying period. When investing in yieldless assets you want to make sure that the...
'US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I DO NOT EXPECT A RECESSION TO OCCUR IN THE US.'
Janet Yellen said this yesterday.
The market disagrees.
Right now, we're seeing the 2s10s curve flatten.
When this happens, the market is expecting long term rates to fall relative to short term rates, or in other words, they're expecting bad times ahead.
Traditionally, the 2s10s...
Big Four Overview: Part 1: Bonds
I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start there. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, having a framework...
Orange line = US Interest rates
US interest rates declining
US Interest rate plateau matches inverted yield curve
When interest rates plateau, trouble ahead.
What will happen if US interest rate declining trendline gets broken?
Looks like a corrective move which should, for the time being, be seen as a consolidation phase or pullback towards the triangle pattern breakout level !
Indeed, looking at the weekly picture, we can identify two important support levels, which are the following :
S1 : 1.7960 (Tenkan-Sen) also roughly the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 1.7850 % of the last...
In short, we don't think so.
In the chart above, you're seeing the 10y30y spread and the 10y yield.
The 10s30s is a barometer of the inflation risk premium.
And quite frankly, the market isn't buying that inflation will be sustained.
Yes, the 10y yield is indicating perhaps to many that there is some kind of inflation risk, but from the Macrodesiac view, all...