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Nothing too fancy here... Lower-lows in the S&P500 ($SPX) accompanied by higher-lows in RSI(14)... classic positive momentum divergence. Violation of the divergence would occur if RSI fell below the ascending trend line below the lows. This would almost certainly be accompanied by further downside in the S&P500, which is clearly in a downtrend (on an...

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CL1 Hourly Chart Before getting to the main body of the post I want to make a point. One of the most important advantages for a non-institutional trader is the ability to step away. If markets are overly volatile, take some time off. If you feel compelled to trade, significantly reduce position size as your risk management...

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CBOT:ZB1! First, a short story. I like simple stuff. Maybe it's just me (I don't think so) but the more complex my process becomes, the worse the trading results. In 1987, four years into my career, I used a combination of Wyckoff and Elliott to make a series of very profitable bond market calls for my institutional clients. I spent my days and nights obsessed...

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These data series are all available in the Trading View platform. Since the turn of the year the price of LQD, the investment grade corporate credit ETF, has declined nearly 10 points (-7.3%) and since early August is down 13 points (-10%). The important question is…. Why? Knowing how to monitor credit is an important skill, particularly since so many in the...

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For more detail please refer to the first four pieces in the series (linked below) and the accompanying charts. Markets entered 2022 with well established trends and trading ranges, but I believe that the coming year holds significant potential for change. This is particularly true in the equity and treasury markets. Because much of the outlook hinges on...

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After reading the comments in yesterday's ARKK post I realized that I needed to clarify the post, particularly in light of what, in retrospect, was an overly enthusiastic title. I had hoped to call attention to the anatomy of an important price behavior that is important across a wide variety of assets and time frames. I also intended to highlight how I use...

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One of the most important chart patterns is the buying and selling climax. A classic example of the pattern, in the form of a potential selling climax (S/C) is showing up in the daily and weekly charts of ARKK. Climaxes are exhaustion patterns, they develop as the last needful seller (weak hands) capitulates and hits the...

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The NYSE composite has spent the last year building a classic broadening top pattern. The pattern develops as strong hands distribute to weak hands, and when it occurs, often marks a transition from bull to bear. 1. Broadening formations are relatively rare and because the pattern itself is difficult to trade systematically (as the boundaries are continually...

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As of Friday (Jan 21) IWM has fallen out of a long range of distribution, produced both daily and weekly closes outside the trading range, and importantly has the potential to produce a large move. In this piece we discuss the trading range, mostly from a Wyckoff perspective, show multiple ways to start thinking about how far the move might progress, and finally...

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WTI Crude Daily Chart: Thoughts on trading and a trade set up illustration: This post was written on January 18-19th but in order to avoid anyone viewing it as a trade recommendation I have withheld publication until today (1-21). It is only meant to illustrate how I think about trades and setups. The placing of entry and stop orders is complex. You need to...

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I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. This is the fourth of the series. The fifth and final will attempt to tie the first four together into a organized macro view. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but developing a...

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I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. This is the third of the series. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but developing a broad framework to build understanding of market context and to help recognize change in the...

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A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices while rising bond yields are synonymous with lower bond prices. In other words, a yield downtrend is the same thing as a bull market in bonds. Last week we published macro overviews of rates and equities that should be referred to for context. 1) A weekly close above the 1.77% would...

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I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. This is the second of the series. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading but developing a framework for markets and for recognizing the potential for change is important. Next week I...

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Big Four Overview: Part 1: Bonds I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start there. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, having a framework...

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This monthly perspective chart of Shopify (Shop) illustrates a stock in which supply is gradually overpowering demand. • Three drives to a high (X1-X3) is a common pattern (and one of my favorites). It often marks the end of a trend. ○ Each successive thrust in the pattern covers less ground. This occurs as sellers (supply) become more willing than buyers...