Sunday Feb 16th

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Sunday Feb 16th

Post by rolf » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:13 am

The models all disagree about some aspects of the forecast and so there is a range of possible outcomes.

Firstly the models predict top of lift to be between 4000ft and 6000ft AGL around noon.

Updraft velocity is forecast to be between 4-5m/s (800-100ft/min) so some big air likely between 11am and 3pm.

The models all predict winds around 15kph from South through SW between 2000ft and 6000ft.

Based on this it looks like a good day to fly XC heading North towards Goomalling or Wongan.

On the hill the models vary with some predicting light Southerlies around lunchtime and all predicting moderate SW by 6pm.

Where they differ is that some models are predicting moderate SSW at 11am with SW by 2pm. In this case it will be possible to launch until about 1pm and then it will be too strong and SW to get off the middle launch. Maybe it will be possible from the S launch if you have big testicles.

Personally I think there is a large chance that the ICOM model will be correct and they are calling for light-moderate Southerlies all day, tending SSW in the late afternoon. This scenario would make it possible to launch from the middle launch until about 6pm and it would likely be ridge soarable for HG and PG most of the day, with a high possibility of MAGIC lift.

I'll be out there around 11am with a plan to be off on an XC flight around lunchtime as this works in all scenarios.

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